Squire Creek
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 94
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 01/09/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 01/10/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |