Tacony Road
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 86
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 01/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 27/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |