Nicole's Song
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 60
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 23/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |