4
Kittabarta
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 50
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |