6
Noyzee Girl
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 61
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength72%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 18/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 30/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 06/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |