2
Buttonwood Tree
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 74
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-10-14 | Hastings Racecourse | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-09-22 | Hastings Racecourse | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2024-08-06 | Hastings Racecourse | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2024 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 04/03/2024 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 22/06/2024 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/08/2024 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/09/2024 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 14/10/2024 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |