Conn Smythe
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 73
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 22% | -0.66 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 18/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |