Delian League
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 84
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 17/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 10/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |