Star Scholar
8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 76
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 20/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |