Thelonious
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |