4
Easter Sunday Girl
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 60
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength44%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 14/10/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |