Shamra
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 69
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 30/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |