4
Attestation
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 76
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength28%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 16/09/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |