1
Ernie's Martini
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 87
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength92%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 23/12/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 05/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 16/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 10/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |