Where Is Essa
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 25% | -0.67 |