Lemon Twist
5yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 75
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 07/08/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |