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7

Let's Go Liam

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79

Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mahoning Valley 12/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 74 · 6f Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 74 par12/01C5OR 74C5 @ Mahoning Valley 05/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 75 · 1m Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 75 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 11/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 74 · 6f Slo 124 · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 74 par11/03C8OR 74C5 @ Mahoning Valley 27/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 76 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Woodbine 03/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 80 · 7f Fas 123 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 80 par3/05C8OR 80C5 @ Fort Erie 30/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 78 · 7f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Fort Erie 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 77 · 5f Fm 120 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 77 par21/07C8OR 77C5 @ Fort Erie 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 6f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 75 parC8 @ Fort Erie 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 78 par31/08C8OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Fort Erie?2nd2nd0
2026-08-03Fort Erie?2nd-1th+3
2026-07-21Fort Erie?4th4th0
2026-06-30Fort Erie?8th5th+3
2026-05-03Woodbine?10th10th0
2026-03-27Mahoning Valley?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0127/0321/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/01/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
05/02/20265th15/261%0%-0.61
11/03/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
27/03/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11
03/05/202610th4/179%10%-0.69
30/06/20268th9/276%0%-0.76
21/07/20264th13/266%40%-0.26
03/08/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
31/08/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05