3
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4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 53
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength33%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/09/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |