5
Bill Needle
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |