3
Bongino
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2024 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 13/06/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 12/08/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 25/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 03/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |