Hardware Gap
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 68
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Woodbine | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 07/11/2025 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |