7
Catch A Nite Train
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 79
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength82%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-04-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-10-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 03/09/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |
| 17/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 01/10/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 19/08/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |