5
Paynter's Canvas
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 13/08/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 04/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |