3
Spotonjustice
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 85
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength57%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 23/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |