3
Keenies Final Gift
5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Cox Ranch Distaff Challenge Final Stakes · 1f 180y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-08-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2024-10-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2024-09-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA64 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2024 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 02/07/2024 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 03/09/2024 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 18/09/2024 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/10/2024 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 12/08/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 04/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |