2
Kelli Girl
4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 81
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Cox Ranch Distaff Challenge Final Stakes · 1f 180y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 06/08/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |