2
Bella's Prayer
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 15/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 04/08/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 9% | -0.17 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |