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5

Corona Grande

6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 74

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#4

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength39%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Mahoning Valley 27/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 1m Gd 124 · beat its mark27/01/2025 · OR 80 par27/01C8OR 80C7 @ Mahoning Valley 06/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 82 · 1m Slo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/02/2025 · OR 82 parC7 @ Mahoning Valley 04/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/03/2025 · OR 83 par4/03C7OR 83C7 @ Mahoning Valley 11/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 84 · 1m Slo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/04/2025 · OR 84 parC7 @ Mountaineer 27/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 89 · 1m Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/04/2025 · OR 89 par27/04C7OR 89C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 91 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/05/2025 · OR 91 parC7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 19/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/06/2025 · OR 83 par19/06C7OR 83C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 78 · 6f 119 · below its mark04/08/2026 · OR 78 parC7 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 27/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 77 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 77 par27/08C7OR 77projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th6th+1
2026-08-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?12th12th0
2025-06-19Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th5th+1
2025-05-26Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th5th+2
2025-04-27Mountaineer?7th6th+1
2025-04-11Mahoning Valley?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0111/0419/0627/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/01/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
06/02/20253rd5/174%60%-0.14
04/03/20253rd7/163%60%-0.03
11/04/20257th5/174%25%-0.49
27/04/20257th4/179%0%-0.79
26/05/20257th33/10%25%+0.25
19/06/20256th16/116%29%+0.13
04/08/202612th50/10%0%0.00
27/08/20267th33/10%0%0.00