Little Jake
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/11 | 98% | 88% | -0.11 |
| 08/08/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 29/10/2025 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 9% | -0.44 |
| 16/06/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |