3
Lady Chaos
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |