5
Troubleonthegreen
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-09-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 89% | -0.07 |
| 05/02/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |