6

Gallic Charm

5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 90

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 21/01/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS21/01C6C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 06/04/2024 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 85 · 1m1f Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/04/2024 · OR 85 par6/04C6OR 85C8 @ Churchill Downs 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 89 par20/06C8OR 89C8 @ Ellis Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 92 par25/07C8OR 92C8 @ Ellis Park 17/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 96 par17/08C8OR 96projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Ellis Park?6th6th0
2026-07-25Ellis Park?5th5th0
2026-06-20Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2024-04-06Tampa Bay Downs?1st-1th+2
2024-01-21Tampa Bay Downs?3rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/016/0420/0625/0717/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength48%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/01/20243rd11/1094%78%-0.16
06/04/20241st1/195%100%+0.05
20/06/20264th13/266%73%+0.07
25/07/20265th12/137%43%+0.06
17/08/20266th5/174%29%-0.45