4
Moral Man
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 05/03/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 12/05/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |