5
This Beau Knows
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 79
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 27/08/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.20 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |
| 12/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |