Union Rose
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 80
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 57% | -0.37 |