7
Optimal Courage
8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength7%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 01/06/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |