3
Noctambule
4yo Colt · 11-4
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Mont Cindre Claiming Hurdle · 2m 198y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength88%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: +2.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Moulins | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-03-22 | Auteuil | 2 | +6 | ||
| 2026-02-23 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-05-24 | Dieppe | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-04-23 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-04-06 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/04/2025 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/05/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 23/02/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |