2
Prairie Samba
4yo Filly · 11-4
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Mont Cindre Claiming Hurdle · 2m 198y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength94%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +4.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Aix-Les-Bains | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Aix-Les-Bains | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Toulouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Auteuil | 2 | +6 | ||
| 2026-01-06 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 1st | -3th | +4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Lyon La Soie | ? | 12th | 8th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 01/12/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/12/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 06/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |