6
Stupefiante
4yo Filly · 11-0
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Mont Cindre Claiming Hurdle · 2m 198y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength99%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +4.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Chantilly | 3 | 10th | 5th | +5 |
| 2026-08-08 | Deauville | 3 | 14th | 9th | +5 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 3 | 9th | 4th | +5 |
| 2026-07-07 | Aix-Les-Bains | 4 | 1st | -3th | +4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 9th | 4th | +5 |
| 2026-04-11 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 10th | 5th | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength24%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 11/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 62% | -0.17 |
| 11/04/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 31% | -0.30 |
| 22/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 20/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 47% | +0.31 |
| 08/08/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.34 |
| 04/09/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |