1
Lutece Allen
5yo Filly · 11-4
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Du Mont Thou Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 194y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Auteuil | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Compiegne | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Craon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Senonnes-Pouance | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2025 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 27% | -0.52 |
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |