4
The Magpie
3yo Filly · 9-1
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Top World Stakes · 1m 2f 205y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Marseille-borely | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Marseille | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 21/01/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 30% | -0.59 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 79% | +0.10 |
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |