1
Black Saxon
5yo Gelding · 9-10
Lyon-Parilly · Prix De La Mulatiere Handicap · 1m 3f 204y
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Compiegne | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 16/12/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |