4
Balagan
7yo Mare · 11-1
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Serge Maillard Handicap · 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Marseille | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Marseille | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Marseille | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-02 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-20 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/01/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 02/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 13/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |