9
Elusive Nelson
8yo Mare · 10-13
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Serge Maillard Handicap · 7f 209y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Clairefontaine | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Tarbes | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength22%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 22/02/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 03/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 58% | -0.15 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 58% | +0.43 |