11
Lorlisalsa
11yo Mare · 10-3
Lyon-Parilly · Prix Serge Maillard Handicap · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength69%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 19/07/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 29/03/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 13/05/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |