2
Hot Wings
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |