Trap Line
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 74
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |