Grey Market
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 44
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 12/11/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 09/02/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 13/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |