6
Greyhound Station
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2024-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2024-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength51%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 27/01/2024 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 08/03/2024 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 19/04/2024 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 67% | -0.31 |
| 17/05/2024 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 11% | -0.60 |
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |