Kaiyas Song
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 67
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |